BibTeX

@article{2502.06601v1,
Author        = {Sarthak Mittal and Niels Leif Bracher and Guillaume Lajoie and Priyank Jaini and Marcus Brubaker},
Title         = {Amortized In-Context Bayesian Posterior Estimation},
Eprint        = {2502.06601v1},
ArchivePrefix = {arXiv},
PrimaryClass  = {cs.LG},
Abstract      = {Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and
assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions
rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and
Variational Inference (VI), which need to be re-run whenever new observations
are available. Amortization, through conditional estimation, is a viable
strategy to alleviate such difficulties and has been the guiding principle
behind simulation-based inference, neural processes and in-context methods
using pre-trained models. In this work, we conduct a thorough comparative
analysis of amortized in-context Bayesian posterior estimation methods from the
lens of different optimization objectives and architectural choices. Such
methods train an amortized estimator to perform posterior parameter inference
by conditioning on a set of data examples passed as context to a sequence model
such as a transformer. In contrast to language models, we leverage permutation
invariant architectures as the true posterior is invariant to the ordering of
context examples. Our empirical study includes generalization to
out-of-distribution tasks, cases where the assumed underlying model is
misspecified, and transfer from simulated to real problems. Subsequently, it
highlights the superiority of the reverse KL estimator for predictive problems,
especially when combined with the transformer architecture and normalizing
flows.},
Year          = {2025},
Month         = {Feb},
Url           = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2502.06601v1},
File          = {2502.06601v1.pdf}
}